“May you live in interesting times,” goes the old proverb. Well, we certainly do — a little too interesting for many people’s liking, with a steady stream of surprising events. And so it’s with some trepidation that we cast forward to imagine what 2025 holds for philanthropy.
Why hazard guesses about the future amid so much volatility? Because it’s a way to plot the trajectory of trends across the philanthrosphere and society more broadly. Many of the predictions below relate to the biggest stories we’re following at IP — including potential attacks on civil society, the prospect for philanthropy reform, the next moves by key billionaire megadonors, developments on climate policy, and more.
In our Philanthropy Awards for 2024, we advanced a longstanding IP critique: that institutional philanthropy’s well-worn strategic playbook is straining for impact against a cynical public deeply distrustful of “elites.” In 2025, elites will have more power than ever — billionaires especially — and that story will play out against the backdrop of a new federal administration heavily shaped by some of society’s winners, but set on channeling populist ire against a liberal establishment.
Contradictions abound, and while it’s hard to foresee where philanthrosphere trends will head, here are 25 of our educated guesses. Buckle up and read on.
The Trump Administration Won’t Attack Philanthropy After All
All the jitters in liberal foundation land overlook the fact that MAGA’s culture warriors have far juicier targets than grantmaking institutions that most Americans barely know exist and couldn’t care less about.
But State Attorneys General Will
Much of the oversight of the charitable sector falls to state AGs, and we’re already seeing how MAGA officials are using that power to harass progressive nonprofits and their funders.
Universities Will Take a Hit Under a New Tax Law
Now that institutions like Harvard are part of the pantheon of right-wing bogeymen, look for their endowments to get whacked again by Republican tax bill writers, just like in 2017, only worse.
Real Philanthropy Reform Won’t Go Anywhere — Again
In legislating on taxes, Congress will squander the opportunity to mandate payouts from donor-advised funds or enact other much-needed reforms.
But Changes in Tax Law Will Give a Boost to Giving
We’re cautiously optimistic that Congress will put in a charitable deduction for households that do not itemize their taxes.
One of the Biggest Foundations Ever Will Appear on the Scene
There are now over 15 billionaires worldwide with assets larger than the Gates Foundation and more than 100 with more wealth than Ford. At least one of them will establish a giant new foundation in 2025.
But Foundations Overall Will Continue to Decline as a Vehicle for Megadonors
We long ago predicted the decline of the foundation — or “philanthrosaurus rex” — as top donors turned to DAFs, LLCs and consultants. That’s turned out to be the case, and the trend will continue in 2025, with some notable exceptions (see above).
The Choice of a New Ford Foundation President Will Trigger Backlash
With Darren Walker set to exit at the end of this year, finding a new leader for the mothership of progressive philanthropy is more fraught than it looks. A lot of people won’t be happy with how this job search turns out.
Climate Funders Will be Pleasantly Surprised by the Trump Administration
Thanks to the shrewd decision to prioritize red states and congressional districts for IRA funds, much of President Joe Biden’s historic climate push will continue forward under Trump II to the relief of climate funders.
The Resistance 2.0 Will Be Better Funded Than Ever
Thanks to a booming stock market, liberal foundations and Blue America’s donor class are far richer now than eight years ago. After shaking off a discouraging election, these wealth holders will open the spigots at a record level to challenge Trump’s policies, especially on immigration.
Elon Musk Will Finally Do Some Useful Philanthropy
After breaking with Trump — say, in about six months — the former ”first buddy” and IP’s “worst philanthropist” of 2021 will seek to repair his tattered reputation with a big charitable play, most likely related to climate and energy.
Effective Altruism Will Continue to Make a Comeback
Despite a few recent bumps in the road, effective altruism will keep gaining traction with its powerful critique of traditional philanthropy and its helpful guidance for donors who want to have more impact.
A Marquee Legacy Foundation Will Decide to Spend Down
Amid a rising sense of urgency about key challenges facing America and the world, the go-slow ethos intrinsic to the perpetuity model is facing more scrutiny — setting the stage for a top grantmaker to announce plans this year to put itself out of business.
Taylor Swift Steps Up Her Philanthropy
The billionaire pop star has shown she’s keen to give back. This year will see her vault into the top ranks of celebrity philanthropists.
Funders Give Up on Combating Misinformation
Countering online misinformation (and deliberate disinformation) has always been a heavy lift for philanthropy. But with Meta announcing it will stop using third-party fact checkers, we wouldn’t be surprised if many funders threw in the towel completely.
Tech Billionaires Continue Moving Toward Trump
Tacit and even open alignment with the incoming president is no longer taboo for Silicon Valley’s super-rich, and liberal groups expecting their backing will be disappointed.
But Their Philanthropy Doesn’t (Visibly) Follow Suit
Eds and meds donations, and other more traditional forms of mega giving, will continue from Trump-curious billionaires. A flood of big tech checks to the Heritage Foundations of the world won’t materialize.
Tax Law Changes Bring Smaller Donors Back into the Fold
The 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act disincentivized taxpayers to itemize their tax returns, leading to an exodus of smaller donors. With the act expiring this year, we’re cautiously optimistic that Congress will put in a charitable deduction for households that do not itemize their taxes.
Bill Gates Stays Cagey About His Foundation’s Spend-Down
Gates announced his $75.2 billion behemoth would spend down in 25 years back in 2022. Is that still the plan after his split from Melinda and public break with Warren Buffett? We don’t expect to know for sure anytime soon.
Criminal Justice Funding Continues Its Slump
Justice reform philanthropy crashed after 2020 and doesn’t seem likely to pick up again given the decidedly law-and-order tilt of public opinion as we approach the five-year anniversary of George Floyd’s murder.
The Lilly Endowment Makes a Bigger Splash
Lilly’s characteristically quiet, regional stance belies a gargantuan endowment that topped $85 billion last year. Bolder national commitments have been coming down the pike lately, and we expect more in 2025.
MacKenzie Scott Tries Something New — Again
The Yield Giving Open Call wrapped in 2024, and Scott previewed an impact investing push as the year came to a close. Will she announce Open Call 2.0 in 2025? We’re not sure, but look for something novel to spice up Scott’s business as usual.
Peace and Security Funding Will Be Even More Lost at Sea
Philanthropy for global peacemaking has been in retreat lately, even as conflicts escalate, authoritarians tick off wins, and nuclear dangers grow. Trump’s contempt for the traditional U.S.-led global order will make things harder still for the remaining funders in this space.
But Global Giving Will Expand and Diversify
Peacemaking may have funders stumped, but global giving for aid, health, development, climate mitigation and more will continue to grow — and not only from U.S.-based grantmakers like Gates.
Entrenched Problems Defy Philanthropy Yet Again — Or Will They?
Philanthropic funders have failed to meaningfully move the needle on a whole bunch of deep-rooted challenges — everything from homelessness to opioids, gun violence to obesity. That doesn’t look likely to change, but the disruption in store with Trump back in the White House might just rejigger that equation.
